Experts, Smexperts!!

I just wanted to bookmark this interesting article

As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Comparing experts as "hedgehogs" or experts with deep knowledge of their field to "foxes" people with a wide range of interests

In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.



Note to Self: How to get subtitles from a BluRay or DVD (that you legally own!)

I setup a RaspberryPi as a Plex video server and converted all my DVDs and BluRays to MP4s. I don’t have a huge library but still enough to be a bit of a task.

The problem is Foreign films, and how to get the English subtitles to show up.

In case you don’t know, to save BluRay discs to a file you need MakeMKV and HandkBrake. And to get subtitles you need MKVextract, which gives you two files one with a .sub suffix and an .idx siffix. If you have this type of subtitle result yo just need to put them in the same folder as the MP4 of the moving and then add the subtitle track in the PLEX setup of that movine.

HOWEVER, for some reason some BluRays export as .sup files and these just don’t work with the PLEX server.

After a couple of attempts I found my answer was to use Subtitle Edit which needs the movie in mkv format but can read through the movie and use OCR (optical character recognition) to confert the image based sup file to the text based srt file. The PLEX server is cool with srt files, so the only wrinkle is the quality of the pictures of the subtitles will cause it to throw that part up and ask you to type it in.

I think if the disk is a quality manufacturer you may have to respond to a dozen or so problems in the OCR process. Not to bad really. But on a cheap production you might have to retype the whole movie.

And if you have a DVD you just need to use MakeMKV rather than Hanbrake (with the VLC mod) since MKVextract only works on MKV files. After you have the subtitle files you just run the mkv file through Handbrake and you are done

MKVextract & gMKVextractGUI & MKVToolNIX





Registration Key for makemkv beta


VLC libdvdcss.dll for Handbrake
https://www.videolan.org/developers/libdvdcss.html then look for “releases” link…


The latest one for windows is ver 1.2.12


My BluRay fix

i can't believe I haven't saved this here, but the driver for my USB ASUS BluRay Burner sometimes gets corrupted.

Here is the fix with the difference that my drive was not in the Intio.. heading but under Serial Device Devices and had an indicator that it was not recognized


OK, so follow these instructions TO THE LETTER.

  1. Plug your external drive back in, and “Intio Combo Device Class” should reappear in the Device Manager.
  2. Click on the little “>” next to it, and you should see something called “Initio Default Controller” appear underneath.
  3. Right-click on “Initio Default Controller” and click ‘Disable’ to turn it off.
  4. Now right-click on it again and click ‘Properties’.
  5. In the window that pops up click on the ‘Driver’ tab.
  6. Click on ‘Uninstall Device’, and then follow the instructions carefully to ensure that you do uninstall the drivers (IMPORTANT: you may need to click on a checkbox to confirm that you want to delete the driver software – don’t miss this step if so).
  7. Unplug the external drive from the USB ports.
  8. Shut down your computer (be sure to shut it down fully, don’t just restart it).
  9. With the computer powered off, plug in the external drive to the USB ports.
  10. Restart the computer and let it boot up.

The drive should now work! It should appear in “This PC” and it should appear in “Device Manager” in the list of “DVD/CD-ROM drives”


Raspberry Pi Reminder

So a year of so ago I setup my Raspberry Pi as a wiki. THEN since I have short attention span I just left it.

And now I want to try out the Raspberry Pi as a Plex server to host just that limited number of movies or TV series I feel define me.

SOooo, because I am no expert I know rebuilding from scratch my current simple wiki would be a chore I decided to back up an image of th Pi, apply it to a new 32GB card and save the original in case it all goes sideways.

So I want to record the instructions on doing that.



Cloning the SD card is simple. Just follow these steps:

Get everything set up just the way you want it on your Raspberry Pi, whatever you're using it for. Then shut down the Pi and remove the SD card. Insert the SD card into your computer.
Start up Win32DiskImager, a program that you probably have from when you first set up your Pi. (If you're on OS X or Linux, you'll have to use the dd command as described here instead of these steps).

In the "Image File" box, enter the path of your soon-to-be image file. For example, I put mine in C:\Users\Whitson\images\myraspbmc.img

Under the "Device" box, select your SD card.

Click the "Read" button to create the image file from your card.

When it's done creating the image file, you can eject your SD card and put it back in your Raspberry Pi. Keep that IMG file in a safe place.

Now, if anything ever goes wrong with your Pi, you can restore your fully-set-up image using the reverse instructions:

Insert the SD card back into your computer.

Head to the start menu or screen and type "disk management." Open the disk management program and find your SD card in the list.

Right-click and delete all the partitions on your SD card. When it's empty, right-click on it and format it (it doesn't matter what filesystem you format it to, your computer just needs to recognize it).

Open Win32DiskImager again and browse for your image file. Select your device from the Device dropdown just as you did before.

This time, click "Write" to write the image to the SD card.

When it finishes, eject the SD card and re-insert it into your Raspberry Pi. When you boot it up, it should be in the exact same state it was in when you first cloned the SD card.


Now to the plex steps.. this is th site I am using



Words to live by!

I don't know much about this but I sure like the sound of the worlds.

the "temporal coherence" of a graphene qubit

Superconducting qubits rely on a structure known as a "Josephson junction,"


Elsewhere I see something about;

"Exploiting Temporal Choherence"


The Meaning of LIFE, the UNIVERSE and EVERYTHING!!

This world is imagined as objective, with every moment as a discrete object on a timeline with a measurable value assigned to each of these objects.

But all of that is Bullshit.

The open secrect is we naturally live in the subjective “now” and immediate world, and are also naturally connected to everything else and everybody else in the world, and subconsciously accept we are connected to each other.

The analogy is of all of us in a swimming pool (this moment we are all living in now), yet the “world” says each of us is in an individual pool unrelated to the other.

...that is not all. BUT that is enough so the Vogans can destroy earth.


A Dog and a Man Walk Into a Bar...

Outline re-write #1

Fundamental misunderstanding about all of society:
  • You and I are not separate.
  • My (and your) personality is not you, not me, it is a collection of attributes, but it is not you, not me.
  • The not you/not me is just now.
  • Just this moment that is still now. There is no past or future, there is only now. Only not separateness.
  • But we just don’t realize it.
  • By our very existence we only live now. All of us living now, together in this present NOW.

From this basic misunderstanding comes rating these created differences.

By assigning values to everything, then we can then DE-value those that are not like our pasted on personalities.

Once we have valued everything, then we can desire attributes and objects and things of all variety.

And from desire we learn cruelty, suffering, envy and all that stuff.

Although conjured out of fictional separateness the pain and suffering is real.

A monk asked Joshu, a Chinese Zen master: "Has a dog Buddha-nature or not?"
Joshu answered: "Mu." 

My take:
The dog and me and you are not separate.
Buddha nature is not “having”